Liga MX · Track record
How the recorded top picks for Liga MX have done. Each pick is
recorded when the message goes out and settled after its match. Bets count
two ways: as % of bankroll at the stake the message suggested, and flat, as
1 unit on every bet. Predictions only count towards the hit rate, since
they came with no stake.
Overview
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Pending |
Bets | Profit | ROI | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| All time | 5 | 0-5 | 0% |
0 | 4 |
-12.3% |
-100% | -4.00 | -100% |
| Last 30 days | 5 | 0-5 | 0% |
0 | 4 |
-12.3% |
-100% | -4.00 | -100% |
What went well
Not enough settled bets in any group yet to say what's working (each needs 5 or more).
By type
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Profit | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| bet | 4 | 0-4 | 0% |
-12.3% | -4.00 | -100% |
| prediction | 1 | 0-1 | 0% |
+0.0% | +0.00 | – |
By risk / confidence
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Profit | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| medium | 1 | 0-1 | 0% |
-4.0% | -1.00 | -100% |
| higher | 3 | 0-3 | 0% |
-8.3% | -3.00 | -100% |
| lean | 1 | 0-1 | 0% |
+0.0% | +0.00 | – |
By price
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Profit | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| middle | 4 | 0-4 | 0% |
-12.3% | -4.00 | -100% |
By bookmaker
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Profit | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| DraftKings | 4 | 0-4 | 0% |
-12.3% | -4.00 | -100% |
Model vs market
Across 5 settled picks, the model gave them
43.2% on average and the bookmakers
35.2%; they won 0%.
Brier score (lower is better): model 0.193,
market 0.136 (on the 5 with a price).
Model vs Kalshi
On the 5 settled picks with a Kalshi market, the model gave them
43.2% on average and Kalshi 35.2%; they won 0%.
Brier score (lower is better): model 0.193, Kalshi 0.137
— Kalshi has been closer so far.
Long shots not sent
Bets the bookmakers rated under the long-shot cutoff are left out of the WhatsApp picks and
tracked here instead, to check whether skipping them helps. So far: 0-1
(0 pending), -2.4% of bankroll at their suggested stakes,
-1.00 flat units.
Recent picks
| Day | Pick | Match | Price | Model / Kalshi | Type | Result | Profit |
|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Pachuca win |
Pachuca v Necaxa (3-3) |
-140 |
54% / 56% |
prediction |
❌ lost |
– |
| 2026-10-11 | Pumas win |
Pumas v Cruz Azul (3-3) |
+250 |
40% / 26% |
bet · 3.86% |
❌ lost |
-3.9% |
| 2026-10-10 | Monterrey win not sent |
América v Monterrey (1-1) |
+295 |
33% / 24% |
bet · 2.43% |
❌ lost |
-2.4% |
| 2026-10-10 | Atlante win |
Querétaro v Atlante (2-0) |
+245 |
32% / 26% |
bet · 1.0% |
❌ lost |
-1.0% |
| 2026-10-10 | Atlas win |
Atlas v Chivas (1-1) |
+240 |
39% / 28% |
bet · 3.45% |
❌ lost |
-3.5% |
| 2026-10-10 | Tijuana win |
Juárez v Tijuana (1-1) |
+140 |
51% / 39% |
bet · 3.98% |
❌ lost |
-4.0% |