La Liga · Track record
How the recorded top picks for La Liga have done. Each pick is
recorded when the message goes out and settled after its match. Bets count
two ways: as % of bankroll at the stake the message suggested, and flat, as
1 unit on every bet. Predictions only count towards the hit rate, since
they came with no stake.
Overview
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Pending |
Bets | Profit | ROI | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| All time | 7 | 3-3 | 50% |
0 | 4 |
-10.7% |
-82.8% | -2.20 | -55% |
| Last 30 days | 7 | 3-3 | 50% |
0 | 4 |
-10.7% |
-82.8% | -2.20 | -55% |
What went well
Not enough settled bets in any group yet to say what's working (each needs 5 or more).
By type
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Profit | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| bet | 5 | 1-3 | 25% |
-10.7% | -2.20 | -55% |
| prediction | 2 | 2-0 | 100% |
+0.0% | +0.00 | – |
By risk / confidence
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Profit | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| lower | 2 | 1-1 | 50% |
-7.1% | -0.20 | -10% |
| medium | 3 | 0-2 | 0% |
-3.7% | -2.00 | -100% |
| strong | 2 | 2-0 | 100% |
+0.0% | +0.00 | – |
By price
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Profit | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| middle | 4 | 0-3 | 0% |
-11.7% | -3.00 | -100% |
| favourite | 1 | 1-0 | 100% |
+1.0% | +0.80 | 80% |
By bookmaker
| Picks | Won-lost | Hit | Profit | Flat units | Flat ROI |
|---|
| DraftKings | 5 | 1-3 | 25% |
-10.7% | -2.20 | -55% |
Model vs market
Across 6 settled picks, the model gave them
59.1% on average and the bookmakers
53.5%; they won 50%.
Brier score (lower is better): model 0.187,
market 0.14 (on the 6 with a price).
Model vs Kalshi
On the 6 settled picks with a Kalshi market, the model gave them
59.1% on average and Kalshi 54.5%; they won 50%.
Brier score (lower is better): model 0.187, Kalshi 0.139
— Kalshi has been closer so far.
Long shots not sent
Bets the bookmakers rated under the long-shot cutoff are left out of the WhatsApp picks and
tracked here instead, to check whether skipping them helps. So far: 0-3
(0 pending), -7.8% of bankroll at their suggested stakes,
-3.00 flat units.
Recent picks
| Day | Pick | Match | Price | Model / Kalshi | Type | Result | Profit |
|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Depor win not sent |
Real Sociedad v Depor (3-2) |
+450 |
37% / 16% |
bet · 5.65% |
❌ lost |
-5.7% |
| 2026-10-11 | Betis win |
Betis v Osasuna (5-2) |
-195 |
65% / 64% |
prediction |
✅ won |
– |
| 2026-10-11 | Racing win |
Racing v Valencia (2-2) |
+120 |
50% / 44% |
bet · 1.85% |
❌ lost |
-1.9% |
| 2026-10-11 | Celta win |
Elche v Celta (0-0) |
+150 |
44% / 38% |
bet · 1.81% |
❌ lost |
-1.8% |
| 2026-10-10 | Getafe win not sent |
Barça v Getafe (3-0) |
+2200 |
9% / 4% |
bet · 1.25% |
❌ lost |
-1.2% |
| 2026-10-10 | Villarreal win not sent |
Real Madrid v Villarreal (1-0) |
+550 |
18% / 12% |
bet · 0.92% |
❌ lost |
-0.9% |
| 2026-10-10 | Barça win |
Barça v Getafe (3-0) |
-1100 |
79% / 90% |
prediction |
✅ won |
– |
| 2026-10-10 | Athletic win |
Rayo v Athletic |
+165 |
53% / 36% |
bet · 6.14% |
➖ void |
+0.0% |
| 2026-10-10 | Atlético win |
Alavés v Atlético (1-2) |
-125 |
58% / 54% |
bet · 1.24% |
✅ won |
+1.0% |
| 2026-10-09 | Espanyol win |
Málaga v Espanyol (1-1) |
+160 |
58% / 38% |
bet · 8.06% |
❌ lost |
-8.1% |