La Liga · football-bot

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Calculating the day's games…

🇪🇸 La Liga (Spain)

Villarreal 11th 3-1 Real Sociedad shield

Real Sociedad 6th

finished

Goals

Gerard Moreno 7′
Georges Mikautadze 15′
Nicolas Pépé 23′

Luka Sucic 47′

MyBookie: View La Liga games & odds ↗

🇪🇸 La Liga standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barça	8	8	0	0	34	7	+27	24
2	Atlético	8	6	1	1	18	8	+10	19
3	Betis	8	6	1	1	14	9	+5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	+11	18
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	12	15	-3	13
7	Alavés	8	3	2	3	12	8	+4	11
8	Depor	8	2	4	2	12	11	+1	10
9	Celta	8	1	5	2	8	6	+2	8
10	Athletic	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	0	8
13	Rayo	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	-6	8
15	Racing	8	2	2	4	13	23	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	8	18	-10	8
17	Elche	8	1	3	4	11	17	-6	6
18	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	6	15	-9	5
20	Málaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	-9	4

How are the predictions calculated?

Each upcoming match gets a Home / Draw / Away percentage from a statistical model, not a guess:

Form — each team's attack and defense strength from goals scored/conceded this season, blended with expected goals (xG) to separate genuine chances created from lucky or unlucky finishing, weighted so recent matches count more than early ones.
Head-to-head — this pair's past meetings nudge the prediction toward whoever's historically had the upper hand, capped so a small sample can't dominate.
Squad & injuries — currently unavailable players discount a team's attack or defense, weighted by how many minutes they'd normally play.
Home advantage — built into the league's own real home/away scoring split, not assumed.

Every number is then pulled back toward the league's own baseline odds, proportional to how extreme it is — a calibration step found necessary by backtesting the model against a full past season, which showed it was otherwise overconfident whenever it favored a clear winner.

Full step-by-step explanation →