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Calculating the day's games…
🏴 Premier League (England)
No matches this day. Next: Sat Jan 24
🏴 Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Nottm Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 |
How are the predictions calculated?
Each upcoming match gets a Home / Draw / Away percentage from a statistical model, not a guess:
- Form — each team's attack and defense strength from goals scored/conceded this season, blended with expected goals (xG) to separate genuine chances created from lucky or unlucky finishing, weighted so recent matches count more than early ones.
- Head-to-head — this pair's past meetings nudge the prediction toward whoever's historically had the upper hand, capped so a small sample can't dominate.
- Squad & injuries — currently unavailable players discount a team's attack or defense, weighted by how many minutes they'd normally play.
- Home advantage — built into the league's own real home/away scoring split, not assumed.
Every number is then pulled back toward the league's own baseline odds, proportional to how extreme it is — a calibration step found necessary by backtesting the model against a full past season, which showed it was otherwise overconfident whenever it favored a clear winner.