La Liga · football-bot

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Calculating the day's games…

🇪🇸 La Liga (Spain)

Villarreal 10th 4-1 Espanyol shield

Espanyol 11th

finished

Goals

Georges Mikautadze 35′
José Salinas OG 41′
Nicolas Pépé 50′
Alberto Moleiro 55′

Leandro Cabrera 88′

MyBookie: View La Liga games & odds ↗

🇪🇸 La Liga standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barça	8	8	0	0	34	7	+27	24
2	Atlético	8	6	1	1	18	8	+10	19
3	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	19	8	+11	18
4	Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alavés	8	3	2	3	12	8	+4	11
7	Depor	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Athletic	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
10	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	13	13	0	8
11	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	11	11	0	8
12	Rayo	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Getafe	8	2	2	4	4	10	-6	8
14	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
15	Celta	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
16	Racing	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Málaga	8	0	4	4	4	13	-9	4

How are the predictions calculated?

Each upcoming match gets a Home / Draw / Away percentage from a statistical model, not a guess:

Form — each team's attack and defense strength from goals scored/conceded this season, blended with expected goals (xG) to separate genuine chances created from lucky or unlucky finishing, weighted so recent matches count more than early ones.
Head-to-head — this pair's past meetings nudge the prediction toward whoever's historically had the upper hand, capped so a small sample can't dominate.
Squad & injuries — currently unavailable players discount a team's attack or defense, weighted by how many minutes they'd normally play.
Home advantage — built into the league's own real home/away scoring split, not assumed.

Every number is then pulled back toward the league's own baseline odds, proportional to how extreme it is — a calibration step found necessary by backtesting the model against a full past season, which showed it was otherwise overconfident whenever it favored a clear winner.

Full step-by-step explanation →