Calculating the day's games…
Brentford 4th
2-2
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Scorer details pending
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Nottm Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 2 |
Each upcoming match gets a Home / Draw / Away percentage from a statistical model, not a guess:
Every number is then pulled back toward the league's own baseline odds, proportional to how extreme it is — a calibration step found necessary by backtesting the model against a full past season, which showed it was otherwise overconfident whenever it favored a clear winner.