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Calculating the day's games…

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League (England)

Man United shieldMan United 12th 2-0 Tottenham shieldTottenham 18th
finished
Goals
  • Bryan Mbeumo 38′
  • Bruno Fernandes 81′
Arsenal shieldArsenal 2nd 3-0 Sunderland shieldSunderland 16th
finished
Goals
  • Martín Zubimendi 42′
  • Viktor Gyökeres 66′
  • Viktor Gyökeres 90+3′
Bournemouth shieldBournemouth 17th 1-1 Aston Villa shieldAston Villa 14th
finished
Goals
  • Rayan 55′
  • Morgan Rogers 22′
Burnley shieldBurnley 0-2 West Ham United shieldWest Ham United
finished
Goals
  • Crysencio Summerville 13′
  • Valentín Castellanos 26′
Wolverhampton Wanderers shieldWolverhampton Wanderers 1-3 Chelsea shieldChelsea 5th
finished
Goals
  • Tolu Arokodare 54′
  • Cole Palmer PEN 13′
  • Cole Palmer PEN 35′
  • Cole Palmer 38′
Fulham shieldFulham 20th 1-2 Everton shieldEverton 8th
finished
Goals
  • Vitaliy Mykolenko OG 18′
  • Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 75′
  • Bernd Leno OG 83′
Newcastle shieldNewcastle 11th 2-3 Brentford shieldBrentford 4th
finished
Goals
  • Sven Botman 24′
  • Bruno Guimarães PEN 79′
  • Vitaly Janelt 37′
  • Igor Thiago PEN 45+2′
  • Dango Ouattara 85′

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League standings

# Team P W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Man City 5 5 0 0 13 5 +8 15
2 Arsenal 6 5 0 1 10 5 +5 15
3 Brighton 6 4 1 1 18 5 +13 13
4 Brentford 6 2 4 0 12 6 +6 10
5 Chelsea 6 3 1 2 15 13 +2 10
6 Leeds 6 2 3 1 8 5 +3 9
7 Liverpool 5 2 3 0 7 4 +3 9
8 Everton 5 2 3 0 6 3 +3 9
9 Ipswich 6 3 0 3 9 12 -3 9
10 Hull 5 2 2 1 6 4 +2 8
11 Newcastle 5 2 2 1 9 9 0 8
12 Man United 6 1 3 2 9 9 0 6
13 Nottm Forest 5 1 2 2 4 5 -1 5
14 Aston Villa 6 1 2 3 6 11 -5 5
15 Crystal Palace 5 1 1 3 6 11 -5 4
16 Sunderland 6 1 1 4 6 12 -6 4
17 Bournemouth 6 0 3 3 7 13 -6 3
18 Tottenham 6 0 3 3 3 9 -6 3
19 Coventry 5 1 0 4 1 10 -9 3
20 Fulham 6 0 2 4 6 10 -4 2
How are the predictions calculated?

Each upcoming match gets a Home / Draw / Away percentage from a statistical model, not a guess:

Every number is then pulled back toward the league's own baseline odds, proportional to how extreme it is — a calibration step found necessary by backtesting the model against a full past season, which showed it was otherwise overconfident whenever it favored a clear winner.

Full step-by-step explanation →

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