Depor 7th
0-1
Sevilla 5th
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Calculating the day's games…
🇪🇸 La Liga (Spain)
Depor 7th
0-1
Sevilla 5th
Atlético 2nd
4-0
Osasuna 13th
Barça 1st
7-2
Racing 16th
🇪🇸 La Liga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Depor | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
How are the predictions calculated?
Each upcoming match gets a Home / Draw / Away percentage from a statistical model, not a guess:
- Form — each team's attack and defense strength from goals scored/conceded this season, blended with expected goals (xG) to separate genuine chances created from lucky or unlucky finishing, weighted so recent matches count more than early ones.
- Head-to-head — this pair's past meetings nudge the prediction toward whoever's historically had the upper hand, capped so a small sample can't dominate.
- Squad & injuries — currently unavailable players discount a team's attack or defense, weighted by how many minutes they'd normally play.
- Home advantage — built into the league's own real home/away scoring split, not assumed.
Every number is then pulled back toward the league's own baseline odds, proportional to how extreme it is — a calibration step found necessary by backtesting the model against a full past season, which showed it was otherwise overconfident whenever it favored a clear winner.